彭博社對話李開復：零一萬物想做的是填補AI圈還不存在“Windows”的空白

分享我在Bloomberg China Show上的對談。

在訪談中，我分享了零一萬物近期發布萬智企業大模型一站式平臺背后的行業思考。如同 Windows 內核需要操作系統釋放價值，DeepSeek 同樣需要中間件才能深入產業。零一萬物所要做的就是填補 AI 2.0 時代 “Windows 操作系統”的空白。

另一方面，中美超大模型的預訓練正在逐漸寡頭化。未來中國大模型有很大概率會收攏到 DeepSeek、阿里巴巴、字節跳動三家，其中以 DeepSeek 勢頭最猛。這也是萬智選擇接入 DeepSeek 的原因。

以大模型為代表的 AI 2.0 是有史以來最偉大的科技革命與平臺革命。各地政府都在加緊探索以人工智能打造新質生產力，零一萬物也會積極與地方政府及產業展開合作、共同探索。

本文摘編翻譯自彭博社Bloomberg China Show：

3 月 20 日，零一萬物 CEO、創新工場董事長李開復博士接受了彭博社的專訪。

在訪談中他表示，DeepSeek 熱潮之后，中國經歷了自己的“DeepSeek”時刻。零一萬物看到了 DeepSeek 在基座模型領域的技術突破，也洞察到在基座模型與市場需求之間存在著缺位——由于缺少連接企業知識庫、搭建應用的中間件，DeepSeek 優質模型難以轉變為企業生產力。

李開復以 Windows 內核類比：DeepSeek 是 Windows 內核，而零一萬物提供的平臺則是 Windows 操作系統、應用程序、UI 界面。沒有 Windows 操作系統、應用程序、UI 界面，Windows 內核就無法發揮真正的價值。

李開復強調，AI 需要市場，市場也需要 AI。要真正發揮大模型的價值所在，AI 領域內仍然沒有出現自己的“ Windows 操作系統”，零一萬物想要做的正是填補這一空缺。

因此，零一萬物選擇全面擁抱 DeepSeek，推出萬智企業大模型一站式平臺，不僅提供安全模型部署方案、模型微調方案，還封裝了聯網搜索、知識庫RAG、Agent 搭建等工具，助力 DeepSeek 等優質基座模型賦能企業場景。

李開復博士（右一）在訪談現場

談及大模型領域未來的競爭格局，李開復認為，在中美，超大模型的預訓練正在逐漸寡頭化，并且寡頭化的程度在不斷加大。他預測中國大模型領域未來將會收斂至 DeepSeek、阿里巴巴、字節跳動三家，其中以 DeepSeek 勢頭最猛；美國則以 xAI 的發展勢頭最為迅速，但 OpenAI、Anthropic、Google 也都會做出令人敬佩的研發工作。

至于中美之間的 AI 競賽，李開復認為 GPU 資源稀缺的情況反而倒逼著 DeepSeek 做出了驚艷業界的技術創新，實現訓推成本與模型性能的突破。在印證了“需求是創新之母”的同時，DeepSeek 的突破也使得開源模式呈現出壓倒性的優勢，堅持閉源策略的 OpenAI、Anthropic 等公司，都會面臨更大的壓力。

“OpenAI 在 2024 年的運營成本為 70 億美元，而 DeepSeek 的運營成本可能只有OpenAI 的 2%。目前各家的模型都很優秀，問題不在于哪家模型性能高出 1%，而是 OpenAI 成本高昂的模型路線是否具有可持續性。”李開復強調，“OpenAI 每年花費 70 億美元，面臨著巨額虧損。現在出現了一個競爭對手，將成本低廉數倍的開源模型免費開放給市場，且這個競爭對手資源充沛，并已經有效地將計算成本降低了五到十倍。

“有了這樣一個強大的競爭對手，我認為 OpenAI 的薩姆·奧爾特曼可能夜里輾轉難眠。”李開復開玩笑說。

以下為對話全文：

彭博社：今年可謂是人工智能真正滲透各行業的元年，此次我們特邀零一萬物CEO、創新工場董事長李開復博士來深入探討這一話題。今天也是一個絕佳的時機來和您一起討論，因為零一萬物剛剛對外發布了“萬智企業大模型一站式平臺”，首發能幫助企業更廣泛地部署、應用 DeepSeek 模型的解決方案。能不能請您詳細介紹一下這項業務？

李開復：當 DeepSeek 問世的時候，中國迎來了自己的“ChatGPT 時刻”，我們可以稱之為“DeepSeek 時刻”。在中國春節假期期間，幾乎每個人都在談論 DeepSeek，許多企業的 CEO 們節后返工馬上要求在自己的公司里用上 DeepSeek。他們發現，DeepSeek 是一個非常出色的模型， AI 的表現令人驚嘆，但它不能直接賦能公司里面的人力資源、財務和客服等場景，因為開源模型還缺少連接企業數據庫、應用程序等必要的中間件。

零一萬物認同 DeepSeek 所取得的巨大進步，我們決定全力支持 DeepSeek ，讓它更好用。我們補充了那些缺失的中間件，開發了易用的使用界面，使 DeepSeek 在企業中變得可用。這就是零一萬物于本周一發布的產品——萬智企業大模型一站式平臺，它在中國大陸和香港地區的初期反響相當不錯。

彭博社：這款“萬智”新平臺背后的考量是怎樣的？

李開復：許多人現在都下載了 DeepSeek，也很喜歡使用 DeepSeek。我有一個 CEO 朋友問他的員工：你們都用 DeepSeek 做什么，得到的答案是算命。這是很有意思的用法，你們或許都可以試一試，但目前的 DeepSeek 還無法直接深入到企業級應用里去。

每個企業都有 ERP 和 CRM 數據庫，有員工數據等各種分門別類的企業內部信息，企業需要的是具備行業縱深的知識型模型。比如彭博社會希望有一個金融知識淵博的模型，平安保險集團會希望有一個保險專業知識的模型。零一萬物發布的平臺，就是為了滿足這類各行各業的企業級需求。

這就像是如果我交給你 Windows 內核，你可能不知道如何把它用起來，你會需要 Windows 軟件操作系統和應用程序界面，還有配套的 Windows 系列應用，Windows 內核才能變得有用。零一萬物推出新的萬智企業大模型一站式平臺，就像是在為 Windows 內核構建可視化界面和操作中臺，讓 DeepSeek 的基座模型高效便捷地轉化為有效的生產力工具。

彭博社：選擇 DeepSeek 作為底層架構而非美國模型，是否折射出中美AI競賽格局變化？

李開復：在中美，超大模型的預訓練正在逐漸寡頭化，并且寡頭化的程度在不斷加大。雖然未必所有人都認同，但我們的確同時看到開源圈展現出壓倒性的優勢，OpenAI 和 Anthropic 都相信自己還能訓練出遠超其他玩家的閉源模型。當他們看到一個性能相近的開源模型時，我想他們可能受到了沉重的打擊。OpenAI 在 2024 年的運營成本為 70 億美元，而 DeepSeek 的運營成本可能只有OpenAI 的 2%。

各家的模型都很優秀，問題不在于哪家模型性能高出 1%，而是 OpenAI 成本高昂的模型路線是否具有可持續性。OpenAI 每年花費 70 億美元，面臨著巨額虧損。但現在出現了一個競爭對手，將成本低廉數倍的開源模型免費開放給市場，且這個競爭對手資源充沛，目前看來 DeepSeek 有足夠的資金儲備持續投入模型研發，并已經有效地將計算成本降低了五到十倍。有了這樣一個強大的競爭對手，我認為 OpenAI 的薩姆·奧爾特曼可能夜里輾轉難眠。

彭博社：那么，你認為 DeepSeek 真的挑戰了現有 AI 的商業邏輯嗎？另外，無論是在美國還是在中國，AI 的商業落地已經相當規模化。在開源模式占據優勢的當下來看，你認為中國市場未來會跑出多少個 AI 大模型？

李開復：我認為很大概率會收攏到三家，DeepSeek、阿里巴巴和字節跳動。他們的模型會隨著時間不斷迭代進化。

彭博社：這份名單上少了一些公司的名字。

李開復：當然，還會有許多其他公司希望構建他們自己的模型，我們也會拭目以待看是否會有第四、第五個玩家。但即使在這三個中，我看好 DeepSeek 目前最具勢頭，這也是我們基于它推出新產品的原因。

但我也想指出，關于你問到 AI 模型商品化的問題，我不認為今天的 AI 已經商品化了。我認為，吸納大量資金訓練的基座模型開始趨近同質化，它們成本高昂、越來越難和開源技術競爭，但人工智能技術并沒有商品化。

就像 Windows 內核、Linux 內核這些已經比較商品化，但 Windows 軟件系統并沒有商品化，微軟多年還靠此賺了很多錢。零一萬物想要做的是填補 AI 圈還不存在的 Windows，并使用 DeepSeek 作為我們類 Windows 的內核之一。

彭博社：那么，你認為現在的 AI 增加了什么價值？對于投資人來說，在思考這個行業的價值增長點時，具體有哪些主要的經濟因素？而為什么你認為只有三個玩家的空間？

李開復：的確可能還有第四、第五個，但在多數市場中，大部分的終局最后將以寡頭局面收場。第一名賺了很多錢，第二名收支平衡，后頭幾名多半不能算是成功。在大模型的賽道中，由于底層模型很難直接轉化為商業模式，所以情況更加復雜。但一旦你是最終贏家，就有許多方法可以變現。近期我們可以看到的變化是，中美兩地的投資人幾乎不再下注更多更貴的底層模型公司。他們更愿意投資 AI 應用、消費者應用、AI 基礎設施類型的創新企業，還有企業應用的廣大市場需求，未來每個應用、千行百業都會被 AI 重塑，這些應用能為企業提供真正的價值。所以，AI 相關的資本正轉往這些方向，而不再投入基座模型。

彭博社：半導體技術封鎖是否會成為制約中國 AI 發展的一個限制因素？

李開復：我們可以回顧過去來理解這個問題。過去，中國總是能夠在底層技術方面迎頭趕上，并構建出偉大的工程產品，而美國更擅長取得前沿突破。我曾經在《AI·未來》這本書中深入論述這點，這種情況目前來看仍在繼續。

如今我們看到 DeepSeek 展現出了極強的適應性和競爭力，再次證明了“需求是創新之母”這一觀點。因為他們擁有比美國大廠少很多的 GPU，所以不得不設法把已有 GPU 的效率提高 10 倍。雖然現在很難去預測未來的走勢，但我會說，正因為 DeepSeek 擁有計算資源比美國大廠少了幾個數量級的，反而被迫更加精益求精，倒逼出的技術創新使得他們的模型訓練和推理成本比 OpenAI 和其他公司低五到十倍，讓全球刮目相看。

彭博社：大約幾個月前，在 2024 年的 10 月份我們曾經有過一次交流，當時零一萬物也推出了與 DeepSeek 相似的模型，并且早于 DeepSeek 發布V3 之前。您如何看待模型迭代的頻率？這種頻率是被什么因素主導？DeepSeek 的成功是一種趨勢使然，還是產品本身的魅力？今年，大模型行業又會給我們什么樣的驚喜？

李開復：中國大模型行業的競爭仍會熱火朝天好一段時間，最終可能有三個贏家，美國可能有四個贏家，但這并不意味著其他幾十家公司會放棄競爭，所以我判斷那些正在快速發展壯大的公司會繼續高頻發布新的模型和產品。在我看來，xAI、DeepSeek 是發展速度最快的公司。同時，OpenAI、阿里巴巴、谷歌和 Anthropic 都會做出令人敬佩的研究工作。

盡管字節跳動可能不在大多數人的視野里，但我會把它列在名單上。字節在大模型領域已經投入了海量資源。在前沿模型探索上敢于投入大量資金，其中一個最合理的邏輯是掌握了大量的用戶，當所投入的巨額成本分攤到能獲利的大體量用戶平臺時，商業模式就能夠成立。基于字節跳動擁有最多的用戶、最多元化的商業變現模式，我做了這個預測。

彭博社：百度是個讓我印象深刻的公司，但不在你的名單上。此外，中國政府對AI的支持，有哪些變化？

李開復：我們都非常尊重并感謝百度在中國真正開啟了Transformer革命。他們試圖聘請杰弗里·辛頓，后來延攬了吳恩達。我認為這證明了李彥宏先生具有遠見。

另一個關于政府支持的問題。中國政府的一個重點工作方向被稱為“新質生產力”。這意味著利用高科技創造生產力、降本提效，并通過高新技術的引入，將所有傳統行業轉變為更具盈利能力和競爭力的行業，而 AI 正是其中的核心引擎。

彭博社：幾周前的民企座談會上，中國科技巨頭的 CEO 們與國家領導人同處一室，這種情形很少見。從這個角度來看，你認為政府會有哪些具體的措施來支持這一目標？

李開復：我認為目前中國地方政府都在非常積極地擁抱 AI，各地都在探索如何將 AI 應用到當地的傳統優勢產業中，用技術打造“新質生產力”，進而促進城市 GDP 增長，這是一個從上到下都在貫徹落實的方向。對于地方政府來說，“新質生產力”是令人振奮的、非常有效的新增長點，零一萬物和其他友商公司都開放和地方政府及產業展開緊密的合作探索。

彭博社：開復博士，非常感謝您加入今天的對話，與你交談真是令人愉快，也祝賀零一萬物萬智企業大模型一站式平臺的發布。

以下為英文對話全文：

Q: This is the year where we start to see really AI being applied across a range of different industries. Let's get more on that now because we've got Kai-Fu Lee. He's the CEO and Founder at 01.AI and also Chairman of Sinovation Ventures. It's actually perfect timing because you've just launched an enterprise large language model that's also gonna be deploying DeepSeek more broadly. But talk us through exactly what it entails.

A: Yeah, well, I think China had it's ChatGPT moment when DeepSeek came out. We can call it "DeepSeek moment." Everyone iss aware of it over the Chinese holidays. Everyone is talking about it. And the CEOs came back to work saying "put DeepSeek to work at my company." And what they found out was DeepSeek is a fantastic model, amazing AI, but it doesn't have the middleware and the user interface that it takes to connect to corporate databases, to build applications, to make it useful for HR, Finance and Customer Service. So what 01.AI did was we saw DeepSeek has been making great momentum. And we decided to really bet on DeepSeek and build that missing middleware and UI so that DeepSeek can be made useful for corporations. That's the product we announced this Monday and we're getting fantastic reception in China and also in Hong Kong.

Q: Tell us more about that launch.

A: Yeah, so we launched on Monday. And what we talked about was many of you have DeepSeek now. You love to use it. In fact, the one CEO friend of mine asked his employees, what do you use it for? And the answer was fortune telling. By the way, that's a great thing to try for you. But it's not very deep into the industry for the companies. Every company has ERP and the CRM databases. They have employee records, they have their internal information. And they want the model to be more a generalist. They want it to be knowledgeable. Bloomberg would want a finance knowledgeable model, right? Ping An would want an insurance knowledgeable model. So our job is to really build that layer for that purpose.

It's sort of like if I gave you a Windows kernel that is the core operating system, you wouldn't know what to do with it. You need all the Windows layers and the application interfaces so that the Windows kernel can be useful. And we like to think that 01.AI provides that layer for DeepSeek, which is the underlying model and technology.

Q: And using DeepSeek as the underlying model. Obviously, you could have chosen other models instead, including from the U.S. What does that tell you about where the competition or the race for supremacy stands between China and the United States right now.

A: Well, clearly in both U.S. and China, the pre-training of a giant model has consolidated and is consolidating. And it's become clear that open-source will be the winner. There's so many that will not concede, right? OpenAI, Anthropic who build their businesses believing they can build a better closed model than everyone else. I think they got shocked when they saw a model as good, they would argue nearly as good. But either way, they're getting it for much much lower cost.

If you think about OpenAI's cost——$7 billion of operating cost in 2024. DeepSeek probably operated with 2% of the operating expense. So the issue really isn't whose model is 1% better. I think they're all very good, but the issue is whether OpenAI's model is even sustainable. I mean, you're spending 7 billion dollars a year making a massive loss. And here you have a competitor coming in with an open-source model that's for free. And that company also is infinitely lasting because this founder has enough money to fund it at a current level and has reduced the cost of computing by a factor of 5 to 10. So with that kind of formidable competitor, I think Sam Altman is probably not sleeping well.

Q: Well, you do think, I mean, obviously, DeepSeek would have really challenged some of the monetization strategies around AI. But at the same time, given the AI is so commoditized now and in China as well, with the open-source approach, how many AI models do you think that the Chinese market can actually sustain?

A: Well, I think probably, I'm guessing three: DeepSeek, Alibaba, and ByteDance. And they'll evolve over time.

Q: OK. There are a few many names missing on that list.

A: Well, there will be many other who aspire to build one. And we'll see if there's a fourth player. But even within these three, I think DeepSeek currently has the momentum and that's why we're embracing that. But I also want to point out that I wouldn't say AI is commoditized. I would say the underlying pioneer model, foundation model that is trained with a huge amount of money, is commoditized. It costs a lot and it's hard to really compete with open-source. But AI is not commoditized. It's like, you know, Windows kernel, Linux kernel, that's kind of commoditized. But Windows is not commoditized. Microsoft makes a ton of money. And what 01.AI wants to do is build Windows and use DeepSeek as our Windows kernel.

Q: And is that where you think the value-add comes now? In other words, for VC's thinking about where the value added is in this industry, it's no longer, for example, AI still presents that value. And I wanna understand, for example, economics and why you think, say "there's only room for three."

A: There may be room for four, but in most markets you end up with room only for two. The winner who makes a ton of money, the runner up who breaks even and everyone else who dies. And this one is exacerbated because it's hard to monetize the underlying pioneer model. But once you're the winner, there are many ways to monetize it, right? So that's the trick. For the VCs in both US and China are moving away from wanting to fund more pioneer models. They're happy to fund AI infrastructure, AI applications, consumer apps, because every app will be remade. And also enterprise apps that can provide real value add to enterprises. So AI funding is going gangbusters. It's just that nobody wants to fund pioneer models.

Q: Does China's innovation, though, come up against the headwind this year of greater restrictions on China's access to advance semiconductor technology? Is that gonna end up presenting a problem?

A: We can look at it historically. China is able to catch up and build great engineering products, while US is better at making breakthroughs. That was what I argued in AI Superpowers, and that continues to be the case.

Today, we actually see DeepSeek not only resilient, competitive, but also basically made true the statement that "necessity is the mother of innovation." Because they had so few GPUs, they had to make it 10 times more effective. I would say that DeepSeek actually benefited from having less resources and able to make training and inference at 5 to 10 times lower the expense incurred by OpenAI and others.

Q: You know, I remember so DeepSeek was, let's call it two months ago. I remember, which we had the chat and the show, I think was back in October, when you guys actually launch something similar months before DeeSeek. You guys came out, DeepSeek came out and then since DeepSeek came out that moment. Just the cadence and the frequency of all these ones coming up with their own iterations. Okay, I guess my question is, what do you make up the frequency? What is behind you think the frequency of these releases? And is DeepSeek the symptom or is it the cause of what's going on? In other words, what can we expect from the industry this year?

A: I think it's still ultra competitive. The fact that I think China will have 3 winners, US might have 4 winners at the end. It doesn't mean dozens of others will not want to compete. So I do expect frequent releases to continue, especially from the fast moving companies. And I think the fastest moving companies probably are xAI's Grok and DeepSeek. I see these are the fastest. And then I think OpenAI, Alibaba, Google, and Anthropic are, of course, all making respectable moves.

I listed ByteDance because they're not on the list by people, but we know how much they're spending. And I think one way you can justify spending a ton of money on pioneer models is because you have so many customers. When amortized over many customers, you can make the business case. And ByteDance has more customers and more ways to monetize than anybody. So I would make that speculation.

Q: Yeah, I think Baidu is one of the names that sort of stands out to me. Not on that list and maybe can share some reaction on that, but also government support from Beijing and exactly how do you see that also shaping up over the coming year?

A: We all respect and thank Baidu for really starting the Transformer revolution in China. They tried to hire Jeff Hinton and ended up hiring Andrew Ng. And I think that shows Robin has that kind of vision.

The Chinese government's new big direction is called new quality productivity. What that means is using high tech to create productivity, efficiency and really turn all the traditional industries into more profitable, more competitive by the use of high tech. And AI is at the very core of that.

Q: So our final question for you, it was rare that we saw the CEOs of China's big tech companies in the same room as the president, for example, weeks before that. And I'm wondering from tangibly, what measures do you think we could see from the government to be able to back up really what really see it as very good optics?

A: Yeah, I think right now the local governments probably are the most active, in trying to see. For instance, how would I apply AI to create this "new quality productivity" in these industries that will end up helping the growth of GDP in the city. And I think, having a single direction from the top, new quality productivity is very effective and invigorating to the cities. We're seeing a lot of interest for our company and our peer companies to work more closely with these local cities.

Q: Right. Kai-Fu, thanks so much for joining us. So it's a real pleasure to speak with you and congratulations on the release of the new platform as well.