1.先看Rubner：他認(rèn)為市場在經(jīng)歷激進(jìn)的de-risk以后已經(jīng)企穩(wěn)，當(dāng)前格局呈現(xiàn)出“向上傾斜的不對稱優(yōu)勢”（ asymmetric to the upside.）。

隨著波動率下降和宏觀資金流消退，市場正重回基本面驅(qū)動。

首先前期散戶和機(jī)構(gòu)的資金流向明顯轉(zhuǎn)向防御和對沖。目前市場情緒極度低迷，散戶甚至出現(xiàn)了罕見的現(xiàn)貨與期權(quán)雙雙凈賣出的“投降式拋售”跡象。歷史數(shù)據(jù)表明，這種倉位與情緒的徹底重置，往往為市場的后續(xù)反彈創(chuàng)造了極佳的條件。

技術(shù)面也在逐步修復(fù)——跨資產(chǎn)（股債）的波動率正在大幅回落，這是系統(tǒng)性交易策略重新增加風(fēng)險敞口的重要前提。同時，個股的離散度預(yù)計(jì)將隨著財報季的到來而再次擴(kuò)大，市場將重回個股邏輯。標(biāo)普的遠(yuǎn)期市盈率已大幅回落至長期均值以下，大型科技股和成長股的盈利預(yù)期依然非常強(qiáng)勁。4月下旬的大盤科技股“超級財報周”將成為推動指數(shù)上行的關(guān)鍵催化劑。

他預(yù)計(jì)在市場成功吸收了大量拋壓、倉位出清之后，二季度的基本面和企業(yè)盈利表現(xiàn)將主導(dǎo)下一波上漲行情。

2.再看戴蒙的年度信，我還沒全部翻譯校對完，只能先摘選一部分他的觀點(diǎn)：

1.The skunk at the party - and it could happen in 2026 - would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down...Interest rates are like gravity to almost all asset prices.

如通脹緩慢上行（而非下降），將引發(fā)利率對全資產(chǎn)類別的拖累。

2. I continue to believe the American Dream is alive, but it's slipping out of reach for too many people and it's now affecting generations of families... Further, it deeply damages Americans' faith and confidence in their country.

美國夢？信但沒那么信了……

3. Having the world's best military is expensive, but it will always be a huge deterrent to war. Fighting wars is even more expensive. And losing wars even more so.

軍費(fèi)很貴，但不打更貴。

4.Economic weakening of the world's democracies or a fragmentation of their economic bonds could lead to truly adverse consequences... they [other nations] could become vassals of these countries and unable to avoid coercion from them.

要搞經(jīng)濟(jì)，不搞不行。

5.Often it is anunexpected confluence of eventsthat causes a 'tipping point.'

轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)從來都是預(yù)期外的。

6.I believe we are staring one in the face: the slow but constant decline and fragmentation of Europe.Europe is entering a decisive decade, and it is unable to act.

歐洲寄了。

7.To be able to address our problems at home and abroad, we must be strong. And our core strength is based upon our commitment to our values. If the soul of America is not strong, then the rest will be weak.

愛國主義

8. High and increasing government debt will eventually have to be dealt with - the right way would be to deal with it now before it becomes a problem;the wrong way would be to let it become a crisis, which, in my opinion, is probably the likely outcome.

政府債務(wù)危機(jī)將以危機(jī)的形式作為“解決方案”。

9.Industrial policy can easily devolve into a buffet where corporate America gorges at the expense of the taxpayer.... America does best not with central planning but with consistent and clear policies that are conducive to growth .

銳評產(chǎn)業(yè)政策

10.There is a possibility thatAI deployment will move faster than workforce adaptation to new job creation.In prior technological transformations, labor had time to adjust and retrain .

勞動者的適應(yīng)速度還沒AI部署和迭代速度快，這就很麻煩了。

11.Most students from countries outside the United States pay full freight to attend our universities, but many are forced to take the skills they learned here back home .From my vantage point, that means one of our largest exports is brainpower.

美國最大的出口產(chǎn)品是腦力。

12.Our inefficiencies, red (and blue) tape and lack of analysis stifle our growth and almost always hurt the poor the most .

繁文縟節(jié)傷害窮人。

13.Many of the financial rules that were put in place did not originate from a clear idea about what they should be or what they should accomplish, which led to unintended consequences .

對監(jiān)管表達(dá)不滿。

14. The United States and China clearly have different systems, values, goals and objectives, and while both sides are currently engaging,we have to expect that there will be some bumps in the road - maybe even some large ones.

中美關(guān)系或有更大“顛簸”

3.聯(lián)儲Notes：

由于凈移民數(shù)量極低導(dǎo)致的整體人口增長疲軟，以及人口老齡化帶來的勞動力參與率下降，美國勞動力增長在今年可能會降至接近于零的水平。極低的勞動力增長意味著盈虧平衡就業(yè)增長也將降至接近于零。

歷史上，潛在就業(yè)的增長和勞動生產(chǎn)率的提高是潛在GDP增長的重要貢獻(xiàn)者。隨著潛在就業(yè)增長預(yù)期接近于零，今年潛在GDP的任何增長都將需要完全由生產(chǎn)率的增長來提供。

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